Countdown to Oscar 2006

Oscar week is winding down and the Tinseltown press is hard at work. This is the week where even average moviegoers converse about the Oscars. As the excitement builds towards Sunday, we wonder what kind of year the Academy had at the movies. Were they head over heals in love with one film, or are they torn amongst many great movies; all of the Best Picture nominees this year are great pieces of fiction (even the overrated Brokeback Mountain) with important, hard-hitting truths. Is it Brokeback’s year, or do we have an upset at the big dance. Conceivably (although not likely), any of the other four nominees could swing an upset. Crash has been gaining a steady momentum since its October DVD release; while Munich caught some of us predictors by surprise when it slid in over Walk the Line—demonstrating its significant, late surge of support from the Academy.

The 2005 nominees for Best Motion Picture of the Year are:


Brokeback Mountain
Diana Ossana & James Schamus (producers)


Capote
Caroline Baron, William Vince and Michael Ohoven (producers)


Crash
Paul Haggis and Cathy Schulman (producers)


Good Night, and Good Luck.
Grant Heslov (producer)


Munich
Kathleen Kennedy, Steven Spielberg and Barry Mendel (producers)

I could now go on a rant in support of each of the above films winning…but I won’t. I will get right to the point. This is a two-picture race between Brokeback Mountain and Crash. Do the others have a chance? Hardly. Would it be great if any of the other films won? Absolutely. But will it happen? No. Here’s why…

So far this year Brokeback Mountain has claimed every award in sight (including the British Academy Award for Best Picture—and the Brits love to (as do the American’s) award their own films as the best movie of the year. Brokeback has also captured the PGA (Producers Guild of America) award, the DGA (Director’s Guild of America) award—for Ang Lee—as well as the BAFTA and the Critic’s Choice. The only award it has not won, that is sometimes helpful in predicting the Best Picture winner, is the ensemble-acting award from the Screen Actors Guild (SAG). The SAG ensemble award went to the fine actors from Crash—giving their film a glimmer of hope.

Let’s take a quick look back (as we have with every other category) at the last ten Best Picture winners compared with how they fared in the other award shows…

2004 – Million Dollar Baby – won: DGA
PGA went to The Aviator. SAG ensemble went to Sideways.

2003 – The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King – won: DGA, SAG, PGA

2002 – Chicago – won: DGA, SAG, PGA

2001 – A Beautiful Mind – won: DGA
Moulin Rouge won PGA. Gosford Park won SAG.

2000 – Gladiator – won: PGA
DGA went for Ang Lee (Crouching Tiger...). SAG went to Traffic.

1999 – American Beauty – won: DGA, SAG, PGA

1998 – Titanic – won: DGA, PGA
SAG went to The Full Monty.

1997 – The English Patient – won: DGA, PGA
SAG went to The Birdcage.

1996 – Braveheart – won: none
DGA went to Ron Howard (Apollo 13). SAG went to Apollo 13, as did PGA.

1995 – Forrest Gump – won: DGA, PGA
SAG gave no awards for ensemble.

1994 – Schindler’s List – won: DGA, PGA
No SAG award.

1993 – Unforgiven – won: DGA
The Crying Game won PGA.

Okay. I went back a little further than 10, but I wanted to make sure my next point was fully illustrated and represented by more than enough data. Never has a film won Best Picture at the Oscars, having only won the SAG ensemble and neither PGA nor DGA. And only once (Braveheart) has a film won none of the aforementioned awards and gone on to capture Best Picture. And, to cap it all off, only twice in the last 12 years has a film, who’s director won the DGA, not gone on to win Best Picture. So, if you don’t smell what I smell, then maybe you know something specific about his year’s race that I don’t; maybe the Academy is up for a shocker this year…but I certainly do not sense it. And so, sadly, my predictions are as follows:

The winner: Brokeback Mountain
The darkhorse: Crash
If they really want to shock us: Good Night, and Good Luck.
Should win: Capote


And, quickly, here are the rest of my predictions, as promised:

Best Director:
Will win: Ang Lee
Darkhorse: Paul Haggis
Should win: George Clooney

Best Actor:
Will win: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Darkhorse: Terrence Howard
Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman

Best Actress:
Will win: Reese Witherspoon
Darkhorse: Felicity Huffman
Should win: Reese Witherspoon

Best Supporting Actor:
Will win: George Clooney
Should win: George Clooney

I have to say I could be wrong here—there is a very, very good chance this award goes to Paul Giamatti, who has been snubbed the last couple of years for great performances in Sideways and American Splendor.

Best Supporting Actress:
Will win: Amy Adams
Should win: Amy Adams

I’m sticking to my guns here, although the favorite in this race is Rachel Weisz. I would not be too disappointed, though, if she were to win.

Best Original Screenplay:
Will win: Crash
Should win: Crash

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Will win: Brokeback Mountain
Should win: The Constant Gardener

Best Animated Feature:
Will win: Wallace & Gromit
Darkhorse: Howl’s Moving Castle
Should win: Wallace & Gromit (admittedly it’s the only film I have seen—but it was fantastic)

Best Documentary Feature:
Will win: The March of the Penguins
Should win: Murderball

Best Documentary Short:
Will win: A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin
Should win: How the hell should I know?

Best Foreign Language Film:
Will win: Paradise Now
Coming on strong: Tsotsi

This is the first time (in a while) that I have seen none of them prior to the Oscars—but I haven’t yet had the opportunity.

Achievement in Art Direction:
Will win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Should win: Memoirs of a Geisha

Achievement in Cinematography:
Will win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Should win: Good Night, and Good Luck.

Achievement in Costume Design:
Will win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Should win: Memoirs of a Geisha

Achievement in Film Editing:
Will win: Crash
Should win: The Constant Gardener

Achievement in Make-Up:
Will win: The Chronicles of Narnia
Should win: The Chronicles of Narnia

Achievement in Music (Original Score):
Will win: Brokeback Mountain
Should win: Brokeback Mountain

I’m going out on a limb here—anytime John Williams is the category, its tough to bet against him (and this year, he’s in their twice!) Memoirs is the favorite here, but I’m going with Brokeback to pull the upset.

Achievement in Music (Original Song):
Will win: It’s Hard Out Here For A Pimp (Hustle & Flow)
Should win: same (although In the Deep (Crash) is a pretty affecting song).

Best Short Film (Animated):
Will win: 9
If it doesn’t: The Moon and the Sun: An Imagined Conversation

Best Short Film (Live Action):
Will win: Ausreisser (The Runaway)
If it doesn’t: Six Shooter

As I make these predictions, I have yet to see the films (but I plan to). They are available to download from the iTunes Music Store. I’m just going on a few things I have read, which really indicated that any of them could win…so your guess is as good as mine.

Achievement in Sound Editing:
Will win: King Kong
Should win: King Kong

Achievement in Sound Mixing:
Will win: Walk the Line (Hey, if Ray could do it…)
Should win: Walk the Line

Achievement in Visual Effects:
Will win: King Kong
Should win: King Kong (or Narnia)

And that’s all folks!

If you missed my Top Ten Films of the year, the link is below. If I picked the nominees for Best Picture, they would (obviously) be my top 5 films of the year. So, no "If I Picked the Nominees..." section today. Check it out…

Top 10 Films of 2005

And on one final note: Everyone has something in particular they are pulling for at the Oscars. For me this year, its The Constant Gardener for Adapted Screenplay, and most of all, the dazzling Amy Adams for Best Supporting Actress in Junebug.

Amy Adams (Sundance 2005)

Alright...The excitement is building and we are finally just a few days away! Don’t forget to watch the show. I’ll be back with the winners and a recap on Monday. Until then, happy predicting to all, and to all,

Good night, and good luck…