Countdown to Oscar 2006

"That's a bottom bitch for you. I mean, we got everything we need right here. And all this stuff in this... this little, bitty space, man; it just looks so much bigger, now. I'm here trying to squeeze a dollar out of a dime, and I ain't even got a cent, man."

-Djay (Hustle & Flow)

Almost every category this year has a clear frontrunner, a clear second-in-line, and a clear darkhorse. Best Actor is no different. But…one small difference in this category is that just about every single person has a chance to win (maybe with the exception of David Strathairn—although his performance is one of the finest of the year).

The nominees are:

Philip Seymour Hoffman – Capote
Terrence Howard – Hustle & Flow
Heath Ledger – Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix – Walk the Line
David Strathairn – Good Night, and Good Luck.

I will quickly get to the previous ten winners of this award. (Precursor awards in parentheses)

2004 – Jamie Foxx – Ray (HFPA (musical), SAG, Critic’s Choice, BAFTA)
2003 – Sean Penn – Mystic River (HFPA (drama), Critic’s Choice)
2002 – Adrian Brody – The Pianist
2001 – Denzel Washington – Training Day
2000 – Russell Crowe – Gladiator (Critic’s Choice)
1999 – Kevin Spacey – American Beauty (SAG, BAFTA)
1998 – Roberto Benigni – Life is Beautiful (SAG, BAFTA)
1997 – Jack Nicholson – As Good As It Gets (HFPA (comedy), SAG, Critic’s Choice)
1996 – Geoffrey Rush – Shine (HFPA (drama), SAG, Critic's Choice, BAFTA)
1995 – Nicolas Cage – Leaving Las Vegas (HFPA (drama), SAG)
1994 – Tom Hanks – Forrest Gump (HFPA (drama), SAG)

HFPA = Golden Globe

Let’s look at what the nominees have won this year (so far):
Philip Seymour Hoffman – HFPA (drama), SAG, Critic's Choice, BAFTA
Joaquin Phoenix – HFPA (musical/comedy)

It's pretty clear who will win this award unless one of two things happen: 1) The Academy is completely in love with Brokeback Mountain—which I have laid out as a possibility previously—and thus, Heath Ledger would pull the upset; or 2) They feel like a complete surprise (in an attempt to be different and award a great performance i.e. Adrian Brody for The Pianist) in which case they could give the Oscar to Terrence Howard for his magnificent turn as a pimp aspiring to be a rapper in Hustle & Flow. I believe this category is pretty well sewn up, however, and in this instance I am not going to predict a shocker.

So, here are my plain and simple predictions for Best Male Actor in a Leading Role:

The winner: Philip Seymour Hoffman – Capote
The “Brokeback”: Heath Ledger – Brokeback Mountain
The darkhorse: Terrence Howard – Hustle & Flow

To add an extra note… This is the academy’s chance to award a film—Capote—they obviously hold in high regard, but one which will probably come up short in its fight for Best Director, Picture, and Screenplay.

And now for some fun...

If I Picked the Nominees…

I tried and tried and tried to narrow my list down to five, but I absolutely do not have it in me to “x” one of the following fine performances from my shortlist. In my opinion, these are the definitive five best performances by a male actor in 2005 (winner in red--runner up in bold):

Ralph Fiennes – The Constant Gardener
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote
Terrence Howard – Hustle & Flow
Joseph Gordon-Levitt – Mysterious Skin
Joaquin Phoenix – Walk the Line
David Strathairn – Good Night, and Good Luck.

I obviously would be fine with any of the five best actor nominees snagging the award (even Heath Ledger who is 7th on my list of performances of the year) as I regard them all very highly. But only every once in a while does a performance come along that carries you through a whole movie, and into another world. Amy Adams did that for me in Junebug. And there was no better performance this year than Philip Seymour Hoffman's in Capote. I cannot help but root extremely hard for him; he is a fantastic actor, one I have admired and revered for a long time (mostly in character roles), and he deserves every accolade and every bit of attention he has received this past year. In my opinion, there could not be an actor more deserving of an Oscar than Philip Seymour Hoffman!


Just a few days left before the show and just two more categories to breakdown: Best Director and Best Picture. I’ll be up with those posts ASAP, followed by all the rest of my predictions.

Until then,
Good night, and good luck…