rokeCountdown to Oscar 2006

“I wish I knew how to quit you…”
- Jack Twist (Brokeback Mountain)

With 9 days left ‘till the big night, I continue counting down with a daily prediction. Today I will take a closer look at the Best Supporting Actor race. This years race has five fine actors; each with a unique background; Mr. Hollywood, the nice guy in a mean role, the indie leading man, the young cowboy, and the former leading man. And the nominees are:

George Clooney – Syriana
Matt Dillon – Crash
Paul Giamatti – Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal – Brokeback Mountain
William Hurt – A History of Violence

With his win at the Golden Globe’s, Clooney has become the frontrunner. However, Paul Giamatti has picked up more precursor awards, winning both the SAG and the Critic's Choice. But, despite that, this just seems like Clooney’s year; up for an acting, directing, screenwriting, and best picture award. Jake Gyllenhaal, who comes from the movie with the most pre-Oscar support, would be the underdog favorite in this category. Let’s check out past winners to see if we notice any trends…

2004 – Morgan Freeman – Million Dollar Baby (SAG)
2003 – Tim Robbins – Mystic River (SAG, HFPA, Critic’s Choice)
2002 – Chris Cooper – Adaptation. (HFPA, Critic’s Choice)
2001 – Jim Broadbent – Iris (HFPA, BAFTA [for Moulin Rouge])
2000 – Benicio Del Toro – Traffic (HFPA, BAFTA)
1999 – Michael Caine – The Cider House Rules (SAG)
1998 – James Coburn – Affliction
1997 – Robin Williams – Good Will Hunting (SAG)
1996 – Cuba Gooding, Jr. – Jerry Maguire (SAG, Critic’s Choice)
1995 – Kevin Spacey – The Usual Suspects (Critic’s Choice)
1994 – Martin Landau – Ed Wood (SAG, BAFTA)

*HFPA (Hollywood Foreign Press Association) = Golden Globe

There are not any really strong trends in this category. Sometimes the SAG matches up with the Oscar, and sometimes, so does the Globe. This is a category that we will have to go with a gut shot. Last year there was a swell of support for Million Dollar Baby; and we knew it going into the show. This year, we are not sure how strongly the Academy feels about Brokeback. What we do know is that there seems to be a swell of support this year for George Clooney, the individual. While it is hard to vote against SAG (because the vast majority of Academy members are actors) this is a time where it feels right to do so. Plus, the one small trend—discounting last year—happens to be Globe and Oscar matching up four years in a row. And so, my predictions are:

Will win: George Clooney
Darkhorse: Matt Dillon
Should win: George Clooney

Now, like the Supporting Actress category, if the Academy loves Brokeback Mountain a lot, they could vote for the film across the board. That would put Jake Gyllenhaal into the victory slot here. Another film the Academy could be quietly in love with is Crash; which would do the same for Matt Dillon. But, still, I am sticking with the Hollywood big shot.

If I Picked the Nominees…

I can’t pick just 5. So here are the 6 best performances of the year, by an actor in a supporting role (winner in red):

George Clooney - Syriana
Jesse Eisenberg – The Squid and the Whale
Paul Giamatti – Cinderella Man
Bob Hoskins – Mrs. Henderson Presents
Terrence Howard - Crash
Ben McKenzie – Junebug


Too bad. I have a tie. It was just too hard to select only one. With my next post, I will attempt to shed some light on the Best Actress race.

Good night, and good luck…