Countdown to Oscar 2006

“Where you born in Chicago? I was born right here. Lived here my whole life. My favorite animal’s the meerkat. D’you ever try out for cheerleading or anything? I tried out but I didn’t make it.”
-Ashley (Junebug)

With 10 days left before the big show, I’ll begin to examine the acting races. I will start today with Best Supporting Actress. This category is filled with 5 suburb actresses; some of whom have given the best performances of any actor in 2005—theirs just happen to be supporting roles (or so qualified by the Academy). So, without further ado…the nominees are:

Amy Adams – Junebug
Catherine Keener – Capote
Frances McDormand – North Country
Rachel Weisz – The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams – Brokeback Mountain

The absolute most difficult thing about making predictions this year is deciding when and when not to predict the nominee from Brokeback Mountain. This category exemplifies that to a tee. The definite frontrunner in this race is Rachel Weisz. Her performance is deeply measured and moving. It also, is practically a co-leading roll (which helps her). The second favorite would be Amy Adams. Her sheer presence on screen makes Junebug sparkle from beginning to end. A lot of people have fallen in love with her and her performance, in Junebug. And then there is Michelle Williams. Her performance is brave, and mild, and subtle, and nuanced, and very elegant. AND she is in Brokeback Mountain. How smitten is the Academy over Brokeback? Will it sweep? It’s hardly likely. But is it possible? Definitely.

All precursor awards suggest the possibility of a Brokeback sweep at the Academy Awards. It has won almost everything it’s been up for. The problem is is that we do not know if the Academy loves Brokeback as much as all of these other groups do. One thing about the Academy is: they like to be different. The fact that every other award organization on earth has been very kind to Brokeback—in fact, may somewhat hurt Brokeback’s chances at the Oscars. Okay. Enough talk. Let’s get down to the facts.

The Screen Actors Guild (SAG) – Rachel Weisz
The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA): Thandie Newton - Crash (not nominated for Oscar). Rachel Weisz nominated for Lead Actress not Supporting—as good as a win in supporting in my book.
Golden Globe Award – Rachel Weisz (Amy Adams not nominated)
Critic's Choice Award – Amy Adams, Michelle Williams (tie)

Last 10 Best Supporting Actress Oscar winners and other awards won:

2004 – Cate Blanchett – The Aviator (SAG, BAFTA)
2003 – Renee Zellweger – Cold Mountain (SAG, Golden Globe, (BAFTA, Critics Choice)
2002 – Catherine Zeta-Jones – Chicago (SAG, Nominated Best Lead Actress at Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice)
2001 – Jennifer Connelly – A Beautiful Mind (Golden Globe, BAFTA, Critics Choice)
2000 – Marcia Gay Harden – Pollock
1999 – Angelina Jolie – Girl, Interupted (SAG, Golden Globe, Critics Choice)
1998 – Judi Dench – Shakespeare in Love (BAFTA)
1997 – Kim Basinger – L.A. Confidential (SAG, Golden Globe)
1996 – Juliette Binoche – The English Patient
1995 – Mira Sorvino – Mighty Aphrodite (Golden Globe, Critics Choice)
1994 – Diane Wiest – Bullets Over Broadway (SAG)

When the SAG and the Golden Globe awards match up, usually the Oscar follows suit. BAFTA has fallen in line perfectly with the Oscar in this category from 2001-2004. This is the first year it will not, since Thandie Newton—who won the BAFTA—is not nominated at the Oscars. The fact that Rachel Weisz was in the Best Actress category at the BAFTA’s—and not supporting—further emphasizes the dominance she has in this category. She has emerged as the clear favorite.

Let us not be timid, however, in picking either Michelle Williams (who has Brokeback on her side) or Amy Adams (who gave a sparkling performance in her small, little film: Junebug) to upset Rachel Weisz. This is where I’m going to pick an upset; they say don’t predict with your heart, but if there is one category this year where I feel completely compelled to do so, it is this one. And so…my predictions:

The winner: Amy Adams
The Favorite: Rachel Weisz
The Brokeback: Michelle Williams

I just hope enough people have seen the great film, Junebug. If they have, Amy Adams wins by a landslide. If they haven’t, well…

If I Picked the Nominees…

My list for Best Supporting Actress is completely unlike the Academy’s. Mostly because two of the Academy’s supporting actresses are lead actresses in my view.

Each of the five actresses hold their films together with strong, moving, deeply rich and deeply subtle performances. And the nominees are (winner in red):

Maria Bello (tie) – A History of Violence
Toni Collette – In Her Shoes
Taraji P. Henson (tie) – Hustle & Flow
Catherine Keener – Capote/The 40-Year-Old Virgin
Thandie Newton – Crash
Michelle Williams – Brokeback Mountain


If the critics can have a tie in this category, so can I! Okay. Another category wrapped up. On to Best Supporting Actor tomorrow, where we have the same "Brokeback predicament".

Good night, and good luck...