Countdown to Oscar 2006

“The innocent are sometimes slain to make way for the grander schemes.
You were collateral damage.”
-Chris Wilton (Match Point)

A new day. A day closer to the 78th Annual Academy Awards. Today: Predictions and my picks for Best Original Screenplay.

And the nominees are:

Crash – Paul Haggis, Bobby Moresco (screenwriters)
Good Night, and Good Luck. – George Clooney, Grant Heslov (screenwriters)
Match Point – Woody Allen (screenwriter)
The Squid and the Whale – Noah Baumbach (screenwriter)
Syriana – Stephen Gaghan (screenwriter)

The odds on favorites in this category have to be the Best Picture nominees: Crash and Good Night, and Good Luck.. Crash won the WGA award for Best Original Screenplay as well as the Critics Choice. Since the Globes only give away one screenwriting award—which went to the adapted Brokeback Mountain—they do not help us here. Crash has one almost all of the critics’ awards—including the biggest: the Critics Choice—thus, it has to be the frontrunner.

Just to be safe, lets try to see if there is any precedent for the obvious frontrunner to lose the Oscar, by examining the past winners.

2004 – Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind – Charlie Kaufman
2003 – Lost in Translation – Sofia Coppola
2002 – Talk to Her – Pedro Almodovar
2001 – Gosford Park – Julian Fellows
2000 – Almost Famous – Cameron Crowe
1999 – American Beauty – Alan Ball
1998 – Shakespeare in Love – Marc Norman, Tom Stoppard
1997 – Good Will Hunting – Ben Affleck, Matt Damon
1996 – Fargo – Ethan Coen, Joel Coen
1995 – The Usual Suspects – Christopher McQuarrie
1994 – Pulp Fiction – Quentin Tarantino

A lot of times the screenplay categories function as a way for the Academy to award a worthy film, snubbed from the Best Picture nominees. But usually one, that excels specifically due to its writing. Eternal Sunshine, Talk to Her, Almost Famous, and The Usual Suspects are perfect examples of this. All the rest of the previous ten winners were best picture nominees. The academy certainly could use this year’s Best Original Screenplay category to award a film like Syriana or Match Point—which both had solid writing—and could have sneaked into the Best Picture shortlist.

Since 1995—the year the WGA began giving out awards—the guild winner for Original Screenplay matched directly with the Oscar winner all but three times. One of the differences came in 2002, when they both threw us for a loop; the guild going for Bowling for Columbine and the Academy awarding Talk to Her. Based on the consistency of these awards matching up, Crash becomes a pretty safe bet. Especially if this is the only major award Crash ends up winning (which seems likely at this point), it is highly unlikely that the Academy will shock us with an underdog pick.

The winner: Crash
The darkhorse: Good Night, and Good Luck.
What should win: Crash

If I Picked the Nominees…

My nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay lined up pretty closely to those the Academy chose. My choices for the best original screenplays of the year are a little more out of step with the Academy's choices. There was a lot of great writing for the screen this past year and none better than the following five original screenplays. And the nominees are (the winner in red):

Crash – Paul Haggis, Bobby Moresco
Junebug – Angus MacLachlan
Millions – Frank Cottrell Boyce
The Squid and the Whale – Noah Baumbach
Syriana – Stephen Gaghan

These five original screenplays delivered—each in their own way—the most fun and gratifying movie going experiences of 2005. Junebug, which tops them all, contains the most richly defined characters and beautifully woven story of love, loss, and family.

Tomorrow: Best Supporting Actress. Until then,

Good night, and good luck…