Countdown to Oscar 2006

“He’s been most inconvenient, since I swore to loathe him for eternity.”
- Elizabeth Bennet (Pride & Prejudice)

It’s officially Oscar week and the Tinseltown press is hard at work; covering the stars, commenting on the films, and predicting the winners. This is the most exciting week of the year in Hollywood. And this is the week where even the average moviegoers converse about the Oscars.

As the lights went up on my screening of Transamerica last week, immediately numerous discussions (including my own) began to unfold as to whom was most deserving of the Best Actress award on Sunday. Is it Reese or Felicity—and I even overheard one lady make sure her friends did not forget about the lovely Keira Knightley.

And so ensues my breakdown—and my own faves—of this years battle for Best Female Actress in a Leading Role. And the nominees are:

Judi Dench – Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman – Transamerica
Keira Knightley – Pride & Prejudice
Charlize Theron – North Country
Reese Witherspoon – Walk the Line

The favorite: Reese Witherspoon
What she’s won so far: Golden Globe (comedy/musical), SAG Best Actress, Critic's Choice, BAFTA (British Academy Award)
Second in line: Felicity Huffman
What she’s won so far: Golden Globe (drama)
The darkhorse: Keira Knightley
Although she has not yet won any awards, she still has the potential to be a spoiler here. It is very much unlikely, but possible nonetheless. She has been nominated in every other award competition of importance, and her performance was the brilliance of her film.

Even though there is a clear frontrunner (Witherspoon) and an underdog (Huffman), let us look at the last ten winners in this category just to be safe—and for a little fun. In parentheses are the other awards won.

2004 – Hillary Swank – Million Dollar Baby (Golden Globe (drama), SAG, Critic's Choice)
2003 – Charlize Theron – Monster (Golden Globe (drama), SAG, Critic’s Choice)
2002 – Nicole Kidman – The Hours (Golden Globe (drama), BAFTA)
2001 – Halle Berry – Monsters Ball (SAG)
2000 – Julia Roberts – Erin Brockovich (Golden Globe (drama), SAG, Critic's Choice, BAFTA)
1999 – Hilary Swank – Boys Don’t Cry (Golden Globe (drama), Critics Choice)
1998 – Gwyneth Paltrow – Shakespeare In Love (Golden Globe (comedy), SAG)
1997 – Helen Hunt – As Good As It Gets (Golden Globe (comedy), SAG)
1996 – Frances McDormand – Fargo – (SAG, Critic's Choice)
1995 – Susan Sarandon – Dead Man Walking (SAG)
1994 – Jessica Lange – Blue Sky (Golden Globe (drama))

The Critic’s Choice and BAFTA do not line up with the Oscar with any consistency. However, since Reese has won everything this year (Golden Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA)—which has only been done one other time (by Julia Roberts in 2000), she has to be the obvious choice at the Oscars. If anyone can possibly upset her, of course, it’s Felicity Huffman (but she would have to have picked up a lot of late and under the radar support). Sometimes the Academy does like to be different than the rest, but they also like to play favorites, and so they shall relish the opportunity to bestow their top award (for an actress) on their darling Reese.

The winner: Reese Witherspoon
The darkhorse: Felicity Huffman
Should win: Reese Witherspoon

If I Picked the Nominees…

I’ll keep this short and sweet today. I just need to preview this with a few comments. Some of the performances I consider to be the best of the year, have been deemed supporting by other associations, but I revel them as some of the best performances of the year. Six wonderful actresses make my shortlist; each dazzling the screen, lifting their respective films from good to great. And the nominees are (winner in red):

Amy Adams – Junebug
Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
Q’Orianka Kilcher – The New World
Keira Knightley – Pride & Prejudice
Reese Witherspoon – Walk the Line (runners-up)
Rachel Weisz – The Constant Gardener (runners-up)

Amy Adams performance is one of a kind. Nobody else could have reached the balance between heartfelt endearment and peppy effervescence with such incredible likeability and sincerity. Ms. Adams' was my favorite performance of the year and had me smiling all the way through the wonderful film: Junebug. The other performances were very good (some particularly deep and moving), but no other actor could have matched Amy Adams’ presence on screen.

Tomorrow, I will move on to Best Actor and in the following days, Best Director and Picture. I will follow that with a quick recap and a full list of predictions for every category. With just six days to go, the race is on!

Good night, and good luck…