The Voice

2.28.2006

Countdown to Oscar 2006
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Frankie likes to say, ‘that boxing is an unnatural act; that everything in boxing is backwards: sometimes the best way to deliver a punch is to step back... But step back too far, and you ain't fighting at all.’
-Eddie “Scrap-Iron” Dupris (Million Dollar Baby)


Here we are, at the highly coveted prize for Best Director of the year. Other than Picture, this is that category that draws my highest interest (being that I aspire to be a film director professionally). This years' five nominees are incredibly interesting, dynamic filmmakers, of the highest level. It ought to make for an interesting race—although I fear it will be nothing of the kind. Basically, I am saying, there is very little chance of a surprise in this category this time around (like when Roman Polanski won for The Pianist—beating out Martin Scorsese [Gangs of New York] and Rob Marshall [Chicago] in 2002).

Let’s get right to the nominees. They are:

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George Clooney – Good Night, and Good Luck.
Paul Haggis – Crash
Ang Lee – Brokeback Mountain
Bennett Miller – Capote
Steven Spielberg – Munich

Normally, this would be a very compelling race, but there seems to be so much love and support for Brokeback, that it’s hard to believe they would choose anyone other than Ang Lee. However, I should outline some situations in which any of the other nominees could win (and deservedly so).

There is a vast love for Clooney this year in Hollywood. He has had a stellar year; writing and directing one Best Picture nominee, and earning a nomination for acting in another: Syriana (a film he co-produced). If the Academy loves him enough (and not Brokeback—as everyone else seems to) he could steal this award away from Ang.

If people are not pushing their votes towards Ang Lee, the next viable/popular choice would be Paul Haggis, for Crash. There is a lot of love and passion for Crash, and it seems to only be growing of late. If they do not give Crash their top honor—Best Picture—the could feel compelled to award AcademyPaul Haggis for directing, as a means of honoring the film. (And, of course, he did a fantastic job as well).

The case for Bennett Miller is simple. Capote is filled with wonderful performances all the way around—including the clear favorite for Best Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman. Miller also created a very real, very distinct world, with a very clear, somber tone in his tragic tale of one man’s decent into darkness.

The case for Steven Spielberg is actually very similar to the case for (coupled with the fact that he is Brokeback MountainSteven Spielberg). We have to assume that the loves AcademyBrokeback as much as any other group (they did give it the most nominations (8)). But those are the fewest for a ‘would-be’ Best Picture winner since American Beauty in 1999 (Sam Mendes did with the Academy Award that year). So, we are not really sure how much the Academy likes or loves Brokeback Mountain. We are also similarly not so sure how much they like or love Munich. A lot of people discounted its chances of getting a Best Picture nomination and even a directing nod. However it grabbed both, along with screenplay, and not only were our doubts put to rest, but we had to ask ourselves: How much do they love this movie? Or do they not? We still do not know the answers to these questions. But when in doubt, go with the general consensus of Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain. But if you are feeling bold, do not be surprised to see Steven Spielberg called up to the stage to accept the second to last award on Oscar night.


Who has won what this year:

Ang LeeHFPA, DGA, BAFTA
Everyone else - 0

Let’s have a quick recap of the previous ten Best Director Oscar winners, compared with other awards they (and their movie) won.

2004 – Clint Eastwood – Million Dollar Baby (Best Picture, HFPA, DGA)
2003 – Peter Jackson – The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (Best Picture, HFPA, DGA, PGA)
2002 – Roman Polanski – The Pianist (BAFTA)
2001 – Ron Howard – A Beautiful Mind (Best Picture, DGA)
2000 – Steven Soderbergh – Traffic
1999 – Sam Mendes – American Beauty (Best Picture, HFPA, DGA, PGA)
1998 – Steven Spielberg – Saving Private Ryan (HFPA, DGA, PGA)
1997 – James Cameron – Titanic (Best Picture, HFPA, DGA, PGA)
1996 – Anthony Minghella – The English Patient (Best Picture, DGA, PGA)
1995 – Mel Gibson – Braveheart (Best Picture, HFPA)
1994 – Robert Zemeckis – Forrest Gump (Best Picture, HFPA, DGA, PGA)

HFPA = Golden Globe
DGA = Director’s Guild of America award
BAFTA = British Academy Award
PGA = Producers Guild of America (which film won the PGA—not which director)

What these previous winners illustrate is that if you win the Golden Globe and the DGA, you are pretty much a lock for the Oscar. However, since Soderbergh’s win in 2000, there has been less consistency with precursor awards. This gives everyone other than Ang Lee a chance here. Again, it all comes back to THE question of this year’s show: How much does the Academy love Brokeback Mountain? There really is no way of knowing for sure until the big night on Sunday. A case can easily be made for any of the other nominees to come away with a victory, so if you feel there is any way the Academy does not want to give too much accolade to Brokeback Mountain, this is certainly an award where they could veer in another direction. In 2002 there was widespread support for Chicago, and they went with Roman Polanski (rightly so, I might add). This is certainly a year where they could—they being the Academy—feel compelled to spread their love around; but if you want to play it by the numbers, there is only one choice for Best Director

My predictions:

The winner: Ang Lee – Brokeback Mountain
The possible upset: Paul Haggis – Crash
The darkhorse: George Clooney – Good Night, and Good Luck.


If I Picked the Nominees…

The following are my picks for Best Director of the year (winner in red):
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George Clooney – Good Night, and Good Luck.
David Cronenberg – A History of Violence
Terrence Malick – The New World
Fernando Meirelles – The Constant Gardener
Bennett Miller – Capote
Phil Morrison – Junebug

There is no doubt that these six directors are good at what they do. There is also no doubt that they produced some of the finest cinema in 2005. They each have a distinct point of view and a distinct plan of attack for each of their respective films; but each of them also did something very important as a director: After developing their specific points of view and style for their films, they sat back and watched things unfold naturally. They set the ball in motion and then became audiences to wonderful, evolving motions pictures, acted out by the entire team around them (cast and crew). There is a great natural truth to each of these six films, each with something very specific to say, but in subtle non-evasive manners.

Tomorrow I will lay out the race for Best Picture of 2005, with my predictions, along with my top films of the year. I will follow that up with my final predictions for the show this Sunday.

Good night, and good luck…

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