Countdown to Oscar 2006

Frankie likes to say, ‘that boxing is an unnatural act; that everything in boxing is backwards: sometimes the best way to deliver a punch is to step back... But step back too far, and you ain't fighting at all.’

-Eddie “Scrap-Iron” Dupris (Million Dollar Baby)

Here we are, at the highly coveted prize for Best Director of the year. Other than Picture, this is that category that draws my highest interest (being that I aspire to be a film director professionally). This years' five nominees are incredibly interesting, dynamic filmmakers, of the highest level. It ought to make for an interesting race—although I fear it will be nothing of the kind. Basically, I am saying, there is very little chance of a surprise in this category this time around (like when Roman Polanski won for The Pianist—beating out Martin Scorsese [Gangs of New York] and Rob Marshall [Chicago] in 2002).

Let’s get right to the nominees. They are:

George Clooney – Good Night, and Good Luck.
Paul Haggis – Crash
Ang Lee – Brokeback Mountain
Bennett Miller – Capote
Steven Spielberg – Munich

Normally, this would be a very compelling race, but there seems to be so much love and support for Brokeback, that it’s hard to believe they would choose anyone other than Ang Lee. However, I should outline some situations in which any of the other nominees could win (and deservedly so).

There is a vast love for Clooney this year in Hollywood. He has had a stellar year; writing and directing one Best Picture nominee, and earning a nomination for acting in another: Syriana (a film he co-produced). If the Academy loves him enough (and not Brokeback—as everyone else seems to) he could steal this award away from Ang.

If people are not pushing their votes towards Ang Lee, the next viable/popular choice would be Paul Haggis, for Crash. There is a lot of love and passion for Crash, and it seems to only be growing of late. If they do not give Crash their top honor—Best Picture—the could feel compelled to award AcademyPaul Haggis for directing, as a means of honoring the film. (And, of course, he did a fantastic job as well).

The case for Bennett Miller is simple. Capote is filled with wonderful performances all the way around—including the clear favorite for Best Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman. Miller also created a very real, very distinct world, with a very clear, somber tone in his tragic tale of one man’s decent into darkness.

The case for Steven Spielberg is actually very similar to the case for (coupled with the fact that he is Brokeback MountainSteven Spielberg). We have to assume that the loves AcademyBrokeback as much as any other group (they did give it the most nominations (8)). But those are the fewest for a ‘would-be’ Best Picture winner since American Beauty in 1999 (Sam Mendes did with the Academy Award that year). So, we are not really sure how much the Academy likes or loves Brokeback Mountain. We are also similarly not so sure how much they like or love Munich. A lot of people discounted its chances of getting a Best Picture nomination and even a directing nod. However it grabbed both, along with screenplay, and not only were our doubts put to rest, but we had to ask ourselves: How much do they love this movie? Or do they not? We still do not know the answers to these questions. But when in doubt, go with the general consensus of Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain. But if you are feeling bold, do not be surprised to see Steven Spielberg called up to the stage to accept the second to last award on Oscar night.

Who has won what this year:

Ang Lee – HFPA, DGA, BAFTA
Everyone else - 0

Let’s have a quick recap of the previous ten Best Director Oscar winners, compared with other awards they (and their movie) won.

2004 – Clint Eastwood – Million Dollar Baby (Best Picture, HFPA, DGA)
2003 – Peter Jackson – The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (Best Picture, HFPA, DGA, PGA)
2002 – Roman Polanski – The Pianist (BAFTA)
2001 – Ron Howard – A Beautiful Mind (Best Picture, DGA)
2000 – Steven Soderbergh – Traffic
1999 – Sam Mendes – American Beauty (Best Picture, HFPA, DGA, PGA)
1998 – Steven Spielberg – Saving Private Ryan (HFPA, DGA, PGA)
1997 – James Cameron – Titanic (Best Picture, HFPA, DGA, PGA)
1996 – Anthony Minghella – The English Patient (Best Picture, DGA, PGA)
1995 – Mel Gibson – Braveheart (Best Picture, HFPA)
1994 – Robert Zemeckis – Forrest Gump (Best Picture, HFPA, DGA, PGA)

HFPA = Golden Globe
DGA = Director’s Guild of America award
BAFTA = British Academy Award
PGA = Producers Guild of America (which film won the PGA—not which director)

What these previous winners illustrate is that if you win the Golden Globe and the DGA, you are pretty much a lock for the Oscar. However, since Soderbergh’s win in 2000, there has been less consistency with precursor awards. This gives everyone other than Ang Lee a chance here. Again, it all comes back to THE question of this year’s show: How much does the Academy love Brokeback Mountain? There really is no way of knowing for sure until the big night on Sunday. A case can easily be made for any of the other nominees to come away with a victory, so if you feel there is any way the Academy does not want to give too much accolade to Brokeback Mountain, this is certainly an award where they could veer in another direction. In 2002 there was widespread support for Chicago, and they went with Roman Polanski (rightly so, I might add). This is certainly a year where they could—they being the Academy—feel compelled to spread their love around; but if you want to play it by the numbers, there is only one choice for Best Director…

My predictions:

The winner: Ang Lee – Brokeback Mountain
The possible upset: Paul Haggis – Crash
The darkhorse: George Clooney – Good Night, and Good Luck.

If I Picked the Nominees…

The following are my picks for Best Director of the year (winner in red):

George Clooney – Good Night, and Good Luck.
David Cronenberg – A History of Violence
Terrence Malick – The New World
Fernando Meirelles – The Constant Gardener
Bennett Miller – Capote
Phil Morrison – Junebug

There is no doubt that these six directors are good at what they do. There is also no doubt that they produced some of the finest cinema in 2005. They each have a distinct point of view and a distinct plan of attack for each of their respective films; but each of them also did something very important as a director: After developing their specific points of view and style for their films, they sat back and watched things unfold naturally. They set the ball in motion and then became audiences to wonderful, evolving motions pictures, acted out by the entire team around them (cast and crew). There is a great natural truth to each of these six films, each with something very specific to say, but in subtle non-evasive manners.

Tomorrow I will lay out the race for Best Picture of 2005, with my predictions, along with my top films of the year. I will follow that up with my final predictions for the show this Sunday.

Good night, and good luck…

Countdown to Oscar 2006

"That's a bottom bitch for you. I mean, we got everything we need right here. And all this stuff in this... this little, bitty space, man; it just looks so much bigger, now. I'm here trying to squeeze a dollar out of a dime, and I ain't even got a cent, man."

-Djay (Hustle & Flow)

Almost every category this year has a clear frontrunner, a clear second-in-line, and a clear darkhorse. Best Actor is no different. But…one small difference in this category is that just about every single person has a chance to win (maybe with the exception of David Strathairn—although his performance is one of the finest of the year).

The nominees are:

Philip Seymour Hoffman – Capote
Terrence Howard – Hustle & Flow
Heath Ledger – Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix – Walk the Line
David Strathairn – Good Night, and Good Luck.

I will quickly get to the previous ten winners of this award. (Precursor awards in parentheses)

2004 – Jamie Foxx – Ray (HFPA (musical), SAG, Critic’s Choice, BAFTA)
2003 – Sean Penn – Mystic River (HFPA (drama), Critic’s Choice)
2002 – Adrian Brody – The Pianist
2001 – Denzel Washington – Training Day
2000 – Russell Crowe – Gladiator (Critic’s Choice)
1999 – Kevin Spacey – American Beauty (SAG, BAFTA)
1998 – Roberto Benigni – Life is Beautiful (SAG, BAFTA)
1997 – Jack Nicholson – As Good As It Gets (HFPA (comedy), SAG, Critic’s Choice)
1996 – Geoffrey Rush – Shine (HFPA (drama), SAG, Critic's Choice, BAFTA)
1995 – Nicolas Cage – Leaving Las Vegas (HFPA (drama), SAG)
1994 – Tom Hanks – Forrest Gump (HFPA (drama), SAG)

HFPA = Golden Globe

Let’s look at what the nominees have won this year (so far):
Philip Seymour Hoffman – HFPA (drama), SAG, Critic's Choice, BAFTA
Joaquin Phoenix – HFPA (musical/comedy)

It's pretty clear who will win this award unless one of two things happen: 1) The Academy is completely in love with Brokeback Mountain—which I have laid out as a possibility previously—and thus, Heath Ledger would pull the upset; or 2) They feel like a complete surprise (in an attempt to be different and award a great performance i.e. Adrian Brody for The Pianist) in which case they could give the Oscar to Terrence Howard for his magnificent turn as a pimp aspiring to be a rapper in Hustle & Flow. I believe this category is pretty well sewn up, however, and in this instance I am not going to predict a shocker.

So, here are my plain and simple predictions for Best Male Actor in a Leading Role:

The winner: Philip Seymour Hoffman – Capote
The “Brokeback”: Heath Ledger – Brokeback Mountain
The darkhorse: Terrence Howard – Hustle & Flow

To add an extra note… This is the academy’s chance to award a film—Capote—they obviously hold in high regard, but one which will probably come up short in its fight for Best Director, Picture, and Screenplay.

And now for some fun...

If I Picked the Nominees…

I tried and tried and tried to narrow my list down to five, but I absolutely do not have it in me to “x” one of the following fine performances from my shortlist. In my opinion, these are the definitive five best performances by a male actor in 2005 (winner in red--runner up in bold):

Ralph Fiennes – The Constant Gardener
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote
Terrence Howard – Hustle & Flow
Joseph Gordon-Levitt – Mysterious Skin
Joaquin Phoenix – Walk the Line
David Strathairn – Good Night, and Good Luck.

I obviously would be fine with any of the five best actor nominees snagging the award (even Heath Ledger who is 7th on my list of performances of the year) as I regard them all very highly. But only every once in a while does a performance come along that carries you through a whole movie, and into another world. Amy Adams did that for me in Junebug. And there was no better performance this year than Philip Seymour Hoffman's in Capote. I cannot help but root extremely hard for him; he is a fantastic actor, one I have admired and revered for a long time (mostly in character roles), and he deserves every accolade and every bit of attention he has received this past year. In my opinion, there could not be an actor more deserving of an Oscar than Philip Seymour Hoffman!


Just a few days left before the show and just two more categories to breakdown: Best Director and Best Picture. I’ll be up with those posts ASAP, followed by all the rest of my predictions.

Until then,
Good night, and good luck…

Countdown to Oscar 2006

“He’s been most inconvenient, since I swore to loathe him for eternity.”
- Elizabeth Bennet (Pride & Prejudice)

It’s officially Oscar week and the Tinseltown press is hard at work; covering the stars, commenting on the films, and predicting the winners. This is the most exciting week of the year in Hollywood. And this is the week where even the average moviegoers converse about the Oscars.

As the lights went up on my screening of Transamerica last week, immediately numerous discussions (including my own) began to unfold as to whom was most deserving of the Best Actress award on Sunday. Is it Reese or Felicity—and I even overheard one lady make sure her friends did not forget about the lovely Keira Knightley.

And so ensues my breakdown—and my own faves—of this years battle for Best Female Actress in a Leading Role. And the nominees are:

Judi Dench – Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman – Transamerica
Keira Knightley – Pride & Prejudice
Charlize Theron – North Country
Reese Witherspoon – Walk the Line

The favorite: Reese Witherspoon
What she’s won so far: Golden Globe (comedy/musical), SAG Best Actress, Critic's Choice, BAFTA (British Academy Award)
Second in line: Felicity Huffman
What she’s won so far: Golden Globe (drama)
The darkhorse: Keira Knightley
Although she has not yet won any awards, she still has the potential to be a spoiler here. It is very much unlikely, but possible nonetheless. She has been nominated in every other award competition of importance, and her performance was the brilliance of her film.

Even though there is a clear frontrunner (Witherspoon) and an underdog (Huffman), let us look at the last ten winners in this category just to be safe—and for a little fun. In parentheses are the other awards won.

2004 – Hillary Swank – Million Dollar Baby (Golden Globe (drama), SAG, Critic's Choice)
2003 – Charlize Theron – Monster (Golden Globe (drama), SAG, Critic’s Choice)
2002 – Nicole Kidman – The Hours (Golden Globe (drama), BAFTA)
2001 – Halle Berry – Monsters Ball (SAG)
2000 – Julia Roberts – Erin Brockovich (Golden Globe (drama), SAG, Critic's Choice, BAFTA)
1999 – Hilary Swank – Boys Don’t Cry (Golden Globe (drama), Critics Choice)
1998 – Gwyneth Paltrow – Shakespeare In Love (Golden Globe (comedy), SAG)
1997 – Helen Hunt – As Good As It Gets (Golden Globe (comedy), SAG)
1996 – Frances McDormand – Fargo – (SAG, Critic's Choice)
1995 – Susan Sarandon – Dead Man Walking (SAG)
1994 – Jessica Lange – Blue Sky (Golden Globe (drama))

The Critic’s Choice and BAFTA do not line up with the Oscar with any consistency. However, since Reese has won everything this year (Golden Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA)—which has only been done one other time (by Julia Roberts in 2000), she has to be the obvious choice at the Oscars. If anyone can possibly upset her, of course, it’s Felicity Huffman (but she would have to have picked up a lot of late and under the radar support). Sometimes the Academy does like to be different than the rest, but they also like to play favorites, and so they shall relish the opportunity to bestow their top award (for an actress) on their darling Reese.

The winner: Reese Witherspoon
The darkhorse: Felicity Huffman
Should win: Reese Witherspoon

If I Picked the Nominees…

I’ll keep this short and sweet today. I just need to preview this with a few comments. Some of the performances I consider to be the best of the year, have been deemed supporting by other associations, but I revel them as some of the best performances of the year. Six wonderful actresses make my shortlist; each dazzling the screen, lifting their respective films from good to great. And the nominees are (winner in red):

Amy Adams – Junebug
Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
Q’Orianka Kilcher – The New World
Keira Knightley – Pride & Prejudice
Reese Witherspoon – Walk the Line (runners-up)
Rachel Weisz – The Constant Gardener (runners-up)

Amy Adams performance is one of a kind. Nobody else could have reached the balance between heartfelt endearment and peppy effervescence with such incredible likeability and sincerity. Ms. Adams' was my favorite performance of the year and had me smiling all the way through the wonderful film: Junebug. The other performances were very good (some particularly deep and moving), but no other actor could have matched Amy Adams’ presence on screen.

Tomorrow, I will move on to Best Actor and in the following days, Best Director and Picture. I will follow that with a quick recap and a full list of predictions for every category. With just six days to go, the race is on!

Good night, and good luck…

rokeCountdown to Oscar 2006

“I wish I knew how to quit you…”
- Jack Twist (Brokeback Mountain)

With 9 days left ‘till the big night, I continue counting down with a daily prediction. Today I will take a closer look at the Best Supporting Actor race. This years race has five fine actors; each with a unique background; Mr. Hollywood, the nice guy in a mean role, the indie leading man, the young cowboy, and the former leading man. And the nominees are:

George Clooney – Syriana
Matt Dillon – Crash
Paul Giamatti – Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal – Brokeback Mountain
William Hurt – A History of Violence

With his win at the Golden Globe’s, Clooney has become the frontrunner. However, Paul Giamatti has picked up more precursor awards, winning both the SAG and the Critic's Choice. But, despite that, this just seems like Clooney’s year; up for an acting, directing, screenwriting, and best picture award. Jake Gyllenhaal, who comes from the movie with the most pre-Oscar support, would be the underdog favorite in this category. Let’s check out past winners to see if we notice any trends…

2004 – Morgan Freeman – Million Dollar Baby (SAG)
2003 – Tim Robbins – Mystic River (SAG, HFPA, Critic’s Choice)
2002 – Chris Cooper – Adaptation. (HFPA, Critic’s Choice)
2001 – Jim Broadbent – Iris (HFPA, BAFTA [for Moulin Rouge])
2000 – Benicio Del Toro – Traffic (HFPA, BAFTA)
1999 – Michael Caine – The Cider House Rules (SAG)
1998 – James Coburn – Affliction
1997 – Robin Williams – Good Will Hunting (SAG)
1996 – Cuba Gooding, Jr. – Jerry Maguire (SAG, Critic’s Choice)
1995 – Kevin Spacey – The Usual Suspects (Critic’s Choice)
1994 – Martin Landau – Ed Wood (SAG, BAFTA)

*HFPA (Hollywood Foreign Press Association) = Golden Globe

There are not any really strong trends in this category. Sometimes the SAG matches up with the Oscar, and sometimes, so does the Globe. This is a category that we will have to go with a gut shot. Last year there was a swell of support for Million Dollar Baby; and we knew it going into the show. This year, we are not sure how strongly the Academy feels about Brokeback. What we do know is that there seems to be a swell of support this year for George Clooney, the individual. While it is hard to vote against SAG (because the vast majority of Academy members are actors) this is a time where it feels right to do so. Plus, the one small trend—discounting last year—happens to be Globe and Oscar matching up four years in a row. And so, my predictions are:

Will win: George Clooney
Darkhorse: Matt Dillon
Should win: George Clooney

Now, like the Supporting Actress category, if the Academy loves Brokeback Mountain a lot, they could vote for the film across the board. That would put Jake Gyllenhaal into the victory slot here. Another film the Academy could be quietly in love with is Crash; which would do the same for Matt Dillon. But, still, I am sticking with the Hollywood big shot.

If I Picked the Nominees…

I can’t pick just 5. So here are the 6 best performances of the year, by an actor in a supporting role (winner in red):

George Clooney - Syriana
Jesse Eisenberg – The Squid and the Whale
Paul Giamatti – Cinderella Man
Bob Hoskins – Mrs. Henderson Presents
Terrence Howard - Crash
Ben McKenzie – Junebug


Too bad. I have a tie. It was just too hard to select only one. With my next post, I will attempt to shed some light on the Best Actress race.

Good night, and good luck…

Countdown to Oscar 2006

“Where you born in Chicago? I was born right here. Lived here my whole life. My favorite animal’s the meerkat. D’you ever try out for cheerleading or anything? I tried out but I didn’t make it.”
-Ashley (Junebug)

With 10 days left before the big show, I’ll begin to examine the acting races. I will start today with Best Supporting Actress. This category is filled with 5 suburb actresses; some of whom have given the best performances of any actor in 2005—theirs just happen to be supporting roles (or so qualified by the Academy). So, without further ado…the nominees are:

Amy Adams – Junebug
Catherine Keener – Capote
Frances McDormand – North Country
Rachel Weisz – The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams – Brokeback Mountain

The absolute most difficult thing about making predictions this year is deciding when and when not to predict the nominee from Brokeback Mountain. This category exemplifies that to a tee. The definite frontrunner in this race is Rachel Weisz. Her performance is deeply measured and moving. It also, is practically a co-leading roll (which helps her). The second favorite would be Amy Adams. Her sheer presence on screen makes Junebug sparkle from beginning to end. A lot of people have fallen in love with her and her performance, in Junebug. And then there is Michelle Williams. Her performance is brave, and mild, and subtle, and nuanced, and very elegant. AND she is in Brokeback Mountain. How smitten is the Academy over Brokeback? Will it sweep? It’s hardly likely. But is it possible? Definitely.

All precursor awards suggest the possibility of a Brokeback sweep at the Academy Awards. It has won almost everything it’s been up for. The problem is is that we do not know if the Academy loves Brokeback as much as all of these other groups do. One thing about the Academy is: they like to be different. The fact that every other award organization on earth has been very kind to Brokeback—in fact, may somewhat hurt Brokeback’s chances at the Oscars. Okay. Enough talk. Let’s get down to the facts.

The Screen Actors Guild (SAG) – Rachel Weisz
The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA): Thandie Newton - Crash (not nominated for Oscar). Rachel Weisz nominated for Lead Actress not Supporting—as good as a win in supporting in my book.
Golden Globe Award – Rachel Weisz (Amy Adams not nominated)
Critic's Choice Award – Amy Adams, Michelle Williams (tie)

Last 10 Best Supporting Actress Oscar winners and other awards won:

2004 – Cate Blanchett – The Aviator (SAG, BAFTA)
2003 – Renee Zellweger – Cold Mountain (SAG, Golden Globe, (BAFTA, Critics Choice)
2002 – Catherine Zeta-Jones – Chicago (SAG, Nominated Best Lead Actress at Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice)
2001 – Jennifer Connelly – A Beautiful Mind (Golden Globe, BAFTA, Critics Choice)
2000 – Marcia Gay Harden – Pollock
1999 – Angelina Jolie – Girl, Interupted (SAG, Golden Globe, Critics Choice)
1998 – Judi Dench – Shakespeare in Love (BAFTA)
1997 – Kim Basinger – L.A. Confidential (SAG, Golden Globe)
1996 – Juliette Binoche – The English Patient
1995 – Mira Sorvino – Mighty Aphrodite (Golden Globe, Critics Choice)
1994 – Diane Wiest – Bullets Over Broadway (SAG)

When the SAG and the Golden Globe awards match up, usually the Oscar follows suit. BAFTA has fallen in line perfectly with the Oscar in this category from 2001-2004. This is the first year it will not, since Thandie Newton—who won the BAFTA—is not nominated at the Oscars. The fact that Rachel Weisz was in the Best Actress category at the BAFTA’s—and not supporting—further emphasizes the dominance she has in this category. She has emerged as the clear favorite.

Let us not be timid, however, in picking either Michelle Williams (who has Brokeback on her side) or Amy Adams (who gave a sparkling performance in her small, little film: Junebug) to upset Rachel Weisz. This is where I’m going to pick an upset; they say don’t predict with your heart, but if there is one category this year where I feel completely compelled to do so, it is this one. And so…my predictions:

The winner: Amy Adams
The Favorite: Rachel Weisz
The Brokeback: Michelle Williams

I just hope enough people have seen the great film, Junebug. If they have, Amy Adams wins by a landslide. If they haven’t, well…

If I Picked the Nominees…

My list for Best Supporting Actress is completely unlike the Academy’s. Mostly because two of the Academy’s supporting actresses are lead actresses in my view.

Each of the five actresses hold their films together with strong, moving, deeply rich and deeply subtle performances. And the nominees are (winner in red):

Maria Bello (tie) – A History of Violence
Toni Collette – In Her Shoes
Taraji P. Henson (tie) – Hustle & Flow
Catherine Keener – Capote/The 40-Year-Old Virgin
Thandie Newton – Crash
Michelle Williams – Brokeback Mountain


If the critics can have a tie in this category, so can I! Okay. Another category wrapped up. On to Best Supporting Actor tomorrow, where we have the same "Brokeback predicament".

Good night, and good luck...