Spring Movie Preview

At the Movies 2006

A week into Spring '06, brings us to the moment in the year where, it is time to leave 2005 in the movie vaults, and look on to the promising year of cinema ahead. 2006 has already brought us a couple of very good films: The Wachowski's V for Vendetta and Spike Lee's Inside Man. They are sparked, each, with high level drama and great character performances.

And now, it's time, for a quick preview of films to look forward to this Spring. And following will be my personal top 10 most anticipated films of 2006.

Spring Preview

The Directors:


Sam Shepard in Don't Come Knocking
Wim Wenders, fine German/American filmmaker, who brought us the great indie film, Paris, Texas, is back in 2006, with his Sam Shepard starer: Don't Come Knocking.
Release Date: March 17 (limited)


Jennifer Aniston, Catherine Keener, Joan Cusack
Nicole Holofcener found indie fame at the Sundance Film Festival in 2004 with her lovely and amazing film, by the same name (Lovely and Amazing). She's back at the helm with another Sundance dazzler called Friends With Money, due out on April 7 in limited release. The film stars: Jennifer Aniston, Catherine Keener, and Joan Cusack.


Larry Clark has imprinted himself the American independent filmmaker (alongside the more recognized Gus Van Sant). The director of Kids and Bully, is back examining youth and adolescence in his latest film: Wassup Rockers.
Release Date: 4/28/06


Fresh out of Sundance, Terry Zwigoff's latest film, Art School Confidential, hits the theaters on May 5th. The film stars: Max Minghella (son of director Anthony), John Malkovich, Jim Broadbent, and Anjelica Huston.


And my most anticipated movie of the spring is Robert Altman's A Prarie Home Companion. Not many directors have had such longevity in the film industry, as Robert Altman. And it's no wonder why. He is absolutely one of the finest auteurs to ever direct a film. Ever so gracious in accepting his honorary Oscar at this past Academy Awards, let's get him the real thing! Maybe this could be the one.

A Prarie Home Companion stars Woody Harrelson, Garrison Keillor, John C. Reilly, Tommy Lee Jones, Kevin Kline, Lindsay Lohan, Meryl Streep, and Robin Williams. The film is due out on June 9th.


"The Big Movies"

And of course, let us not forget the Blockbusters of the Spring:


Johnathan Rhys Meyers, Ving Rhames, Tom Cruise, Maggie Q
Mission: Impossible III is bound to be a blast. Lost creator J.J. Abrams directs and Oscar winner Philip Seymour Hoffman stars alongside Tom Cruise in this latest instalment.


After Troy, Wofgang Peterson has nowhere to go but up; although, I'm not quite sold that Poseiden was the best way to get there. Nonetheless, I'm optimistic, and hoping that he turns out a quality sea epic. Richard Dreifuss, Kurt Russell, Emmy Rossum star.
Release date: 5/12/06


What a cast! The Da Vinci Code has set itself up perfectly to be a great movie or a great dissapointment. Ron Howard rarely, if ever, turns out an unworthy film. His clout certainly brings high promise to the screen version of the overly praised novel. We shall wait and see. The film stars: Tom Hanks, Audrey Tautou, Ian McKellen, Paul Bettany.
Release date: 5/19/06


X-Men: The Last Stand (aka X-3) is bound to disappoint. I never thought I’d say the exclusion of Bryan Singer from the director’s chair would be a disappointment; but his replacement, Brett Ratner (Rush Hour)—who has never directed a good film—is an enormous step down. Maybe, however, this will be his first good one.
Release date: 5/26/06


Disney animation hits us up with their CGI film Cars. It’s hard to believe this is going to be mind-bendingly good, but at the same time I am looking forward to the possibility of it being so. John Lasseter (Toy Story) returns to the directing chair after a 7 year hiatus. The film features the voices of: George Carlin, Bonnie Hunt, Paul Newman, and Owen Wilson.
Release date: 6/9/06

Other Spring films to look forward to:

Jason Reitman’s Thank You For Smoking (out in limited release)
Staring: Aaron Eckhart, Katie Holmes, Maria Bello

The Weitz Brothers’ American Dreamz (4/21/06)
Staring: Hugh Grant, Dennis Quaid, Mandy Moore, Marcia Gay Harden

The Sentinel (4/21/06) from television director Clark Johnson.
Staring: Michael Douglas, Kiefer Sutherland, Kim Bassinger.

Akeelah and the Bee (4/28/06)
This film has gained an enormous pre-distribution buzz from within the industry.

9/11 themed United 93 (4/28/06) from director Paul Greengrass. The film stars a bunch of relative unknowns.

Nick Cassavetes’ (The Notebook) Alpha Dog (5/12/06)
Staring: Emile Hirsch, Justin Timberlake, Sharon Stone

Copying Beethoven (5/5/06)
Ed Harris is already receiving accolades for his portrayal of the musical genius.

Lastly, but not least is the documentary, Wordplay (6/16/06). John Stewart, Bill Clinton and others relate their fascinations with the New York Times crossword and editor Will Shortz.


And here are my Top 10 Most Anticipated Films of 2006:

Honorable Mention—films that don’t quite crack the Top 10.


Miami Vice
Now I’m sure my skepticism here is misplaced, but a Miami Vice movie is not my idea of a good time. But, I’m enormously optimistic since one of the best living directors is at the helm: Michael Mann. Plus it stars Colin Farrell, Jamie Foxx, and Gong Li.
Release Date: 7/28/06


Lucky You
Curtis Hanson has not made a bad movie. See for yourself…He’s directed L.A. Confidential, Wonder Boys, 8 Mile, and In Her Shoes. He has also tackled many different genres. His latest film brings to the screen the world of professional poker, with Munich star Eric Bana in the lead.
Release Date: September


Breaking and Entering
Anthony Minghella is another filmmaker with a ton of clout. Coming off of his 2003 Oscar nominee, Cold Mountain, he returns in 2006 with a much smaller film, Breaking and Entering.
Release Date: August


Pirates of the Carribean: Dead Man’s Chest
Gore Verbinski and Johnny Depp both back for the sequal = a pirates life for me. And let's not forget the equally essential Keira Knightley.
Release Date: 7/7/06

And now…the top ten:


10) Lady in the Water – M. Night Shyamalan
After The Village, which made my 2004 Top 5, M. Night Shyamalan has some big shoes to fill. Here’s hoping his second film with Bryce Dallas Howard is as good as the first. Also staring: Paul Giamatti.
Release Date: 7/21/06


9) The Departed – Martin Scorsese
Scorsese returns to his indie roots after a slew of epics. This smaller film, details Boston Mobsters and stars Leonardo DiCaprio, Matt Damon, Jack Nicholson, Martin Sheen.
Release Date: November

8) Inland Empire – David Lynch
David Lynch struck gold in 2001 with an Oscar nomination for Mulholland Drive. As a director who chooses his projects carefully, he is now back five years later with his latest bizarro drama: Inland Empire. The film stars Laura Dern, Jeremy Irons, and Mulholland male lead: Justin Theroux.
Release Date: Unknown (Cannes Premier in May)


7) Babel – Alejandro González Iñárritu
His last film, 21 Grams, was one of the best films of 2003. Amores Peros, his film before that, is one of the most acclaimed films of the 21st century. One can only hope that he’ll live up to, well, himself. He is a great filmmaker and is working with another stellar cast in his latest film, Babel. The film stars: Cate Blanchett, Brad Pitt, and Gael García Bernal.
Release Date: 10/6/06

6) Snow Angels – David Gordon Green
David Gordon Green is one of my favorite filmmakers working today. His eye for the human condition is keen and refreshing. His films play on a very small, very visceral level. He is one of those filmmakers who, one can’t help but highly anticipate his next film. That film is Snow Angels, currently in production in Halifax, Nova Scotia.
Release Date: (Late 2006)

5) Sicko – Michael Moore
Michael Moore is back this year after his very successful attack on the Bush administration, Fahrenheit 9/11—successful at the box office that is. This time around, in Sicko, Moore takes aim at the corruption within and around the pharmaceutical companies and American healthcare.
Release Date: September (of course)


4) World Trade Center – Oliver Stone
Conspiracy theorist, Oliver Stone, is at it again in 2006 with his latest highly controversial step into actual events, this time accounting the events taking place on September 11, 2001. The film stars Nicholas Cage and Maria Bello. Hopefully, this is a step up from the dreadfully reviewed Alexander.
Release Date: August


3) Flags of Our Fathers – Clint Eastwood
It seems Clint Eastwood can do no wrong. He seems to have found something in the filmmaking process that makes it easier for him than it does for others. He has turned out two of the best films of the last 3 years without even taking a breath. This is, without a doubt, one of my most anticipated films of the year. And the follow-up, Red Sun, Black (due out in ’07) will be the same next year. Oh, and Flags is written by none other than Million Dollar Baby scriber and Crash writer/director, Paul Haggis.
Release Date: December


2) Stranger Than Fiction – Marc Forster
Somewhere near the top, is certainly the film I worked on in early 2005: Stranger Than Fiction. Now, I not only anticipate it highly because I was a part of the production; if I had worked on say, Failure to Launch, it would not have made my top 10. Stranger That Fiction, though, because it has a fine comedy/drama script, a first rate director, Marc Forster (Monster’s Ball, Finding Neverland), and a great cast, could easily end up being one of the best films of the year. I can’t wait to see how it turned out. The cast: Will Farrell, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Dustin Hoffman, Emma Thompson, Queen Latifah.
Release Date: 11/10/06


1) The Good German & Guerrilla – Steven Soderbergh
Steven Soderbergh comes triple fisted in 2006. His indie film, Bubble, has already been released to stellar reviews. In the waits are his George Clooney headliner, The Good German, and his epic Che Guevara biopic, Guerrilla. Steven Soderbergh is the director for a generation. What he has been able to accomplish in and around the studio system is remarkable and admirable and everything in between. Double nominated in 2000 for directing both Erin Brockovich and Traffic, he has set himself up for another round at the Oscars in 2007; and quite possibly, although not likely, another double nomination.
Release Dates:
The Good German – September
Cast: George Clooney, Cate Blanchett, Tobey Maguire
Guerrilla – 12/1/06 (limited)
Cast: Benicio Del Toro


Check back for other film related news/info and updated previews for the rest of the year.

The 2006 Academy Awards
‘Crash’-ing the Party and the ‘Broke’-Backlash

Sunday’s Academy Award’s was (for me) one of the best shows in recent memory. The show itself even outdid last years’, where Million Dollar Baby (my absolute favorite film of the year) received all of the credit and acclaim (deservedly so). This year’s show, however, was on a whole other level. This view, though, seems to put me in a great minority.

First, why it was great:

John Stewart: The best performance by a host since….well, since I can remember (I guess the first time I saw Billy Crystal as a kid—although Stewart’s has been more closely compared to the great Johnny Carson, whom I am not quite old enough to recall).

Meryl Streep and Lili Tomlin introducing Robert Altman. And, no speech was better than Altman’s acceptance of his Honorary Oscar!

Three Six Mafia. Enough said.

Best Original Score: Brokeback Mountain. Absolutely deservedly so!

Reese Witherspoon's win and her speech.

George Clooney at the podium. His acceptance speech was the kind that should be emulated by all. Not just a laundry list of “Thank you’s”, but a real effort to say something important. Not to mention, he deserved the award.

Wallace and Gromit!! “Cheese Gromit, Cheeeeese!” Absolutely one of the funniest and most delightful films of the year.

Although it was no surprise, Philip Seymour Hoffman’s win could not have been more deserved. Certainly the other nominees were great, but Hoffman’s performance was of another world.

And finally, the best part of the evening (and the worst for many others) was the final award of the evening. And the Oscar goes to...: Crash. “Wow,” says Jack Nicholson. Wow, indeed. The Crash victory was surprising and fantastic. The only film on the shortlist, that I regarded as having been better, was Capote.

And, then came the backlash:

Never in my entire life have I experienced such strong resentment towards the Oscars. I had no idea that a Crash victory would upset so many people, and that so many people would take it so personally. Every year there is a favorite for Best Picture and about 99% of the time I do not share the sentiment for that film. And usually, it’s a film that falls back on my list to about # 20; Lord of the Rings, Chicago, Gladiator, Titanic (just to name a few in recent memory). A Brokeback Mountain victory would have sat about the same with me--a fine film, but not the best. However, sometimes, they get it right; Million Dollar Baby, Silence of the Lambs, Forrest Gump, American Beauty. Now, this is just my opinion. The Academy always disappoints us or excites us with their picks—and that disappointment or excitement is different for each individual every year. Why this year’s decision to proclaim Crash (a fine film) as the Best Picture of the year has been met with such anger and backlash, is quite comical…

Here are some excerpts from web pundits and newspaper columnists on the Crash victory:

This from Fennec (The Awards Database):

Now it might be homophobia, or it might not, we just don't know. It may be stupid actors voting for the actor-rich movie, we don't know. Whatever the reason, this piece of shit has forced me to do something I didn't think possible. I give up.

I cannot bring myself to update this website saying that the film the Academy Of Motion Picture Arts And Sciences selected was the best of the year. Therefore, the Fennec Awards Database is closing down. Effective immediately there will be no more updates to the film side (the Tony’s section will have an update later this year).

I had no idea that my personal joy at going to the movies and seeing them rewarded with Oscars could be so irreparably destroyed. But tonight it has been. I see roughly 200 per year (and pay for each and every one of them) and have paid for this website out of my personal pocket for the last 10 years. And after this travesty, it just doesn't seem worth it to continue if this is the crap the Academy will acclaim.

I cannot help but read this and do anything but laugh. Certainly I have been in places where I have felt that way about the Academy’s decision—well maybe not quite so angry as to call the actors “stupid” and the whole of the Academy “homophobic”. Hence the hilarity.

And wait, there’s more. From Defamer:

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! God help us all. The sky has opened, Beezlebub has dumped his infernal payload of obvious evil on an unsuspecting Earth. Life as we know it is over. Drive to the desert and start a new civilization, hoping that our horrible, horrible mistakes will not be repeated. This is the end, friends. See you in Hell.

WORST. OSCARS. EVER.

Why don’t you people tell us how you really feel? This from Kenneth Turan of the L.A. Times:

Breaking no ground

Why 'Crash' won, why 'Brokeback' lost and how the academy chose to play it safe.
By Kenneth Turan, Times Staff Writer

And that’s just the title!…

Here’s a little snipped from the article:

In the privacy of the voting booth, as many political candidates who've led in polls only to lose elections have found out, people are free to act out the unspoken fears and unconscious prejudices that they would never breathe to another soul, or, likely, acknowledge to themselves. And at least this year, that acting out doomed "Brokeback Mountain.

Huh? So, Turan is saying that once people got their ballots, they acted out their true homophobic, conservative feelings…JESUS! Isn’t that presumptuous. Why does the Academy’s decision have to be political? This is getting ridiculous.

Okay, so, why all the fuss? Why all the anger? Why is someone who prefers Crash to Brokeback Mountain “homophobic” or “playing it safe”? Why do people who love Brokeback Mountain hate Crash? Are they opposites of some kind? Was there some hidden message buried in both of the films that was lost on me? I happen to really love Crash, and find Brokeback Mountain to be just another good film in a year with many. Why does that make me a bad person?

Sure, maybe the Academy decided to vote for Crash over Brokeback because they were tired of Brokeback’s rampant success at award shows, and did not believe it to be so incredibly transcendent. But, maybe, just maybe, the majority of them found it to be a better film; I certainly know a lot of people that did (none of which are homophobes). And, is it not possible that Crash beat out Brokeback by just a few votes? I mean, we did know going into the show that it was going to be a close race; that a lot of people loved Crash and a lot of people loved Brokeback.

It is time to borrow the words from a greater writer that I, and Crash’s greatest champion, Roger Ebert:

Of course not. "Brokeback Mountain" was simply a better movie than "Capote." And "Crash" was better than "Brokeback Mountain," although they were both among the best films of the year. That is a matter of opinion. But I was not "discomfited" by "Brokeback Mountain." Read my original review. I chose "Crash" as the best film of the year not because it promoted one agenda and not another, but because it was a better film.

The nature of the attacks on "Crash" by the supporters of "Brokeback Mountain" seem to proceed from the other position: "Brokeback" is better not only because of its artistry but because of its subject matter, and those who disagree hate homosexuals. Its supporters could vote for it in good conscience, vote for it and feel they had made a progressive move, vote for it and not feel that there was any stain on their liberal credentials for shunning what "Crash" had to offer.

And, one final note to all you Crash bashers out there: Remember back in the summer when Crash was the beloved film of the year, and the only film regarded as worthy of winning the Best Picture Oscar? Only a handful of people seemed to hate it so much then. This backlash strikes me as very misplaced and very silly. If last year, there had been the kind of widespread support for CrashMillion Dollar Baby going into the Oscars, as there was for Brokeback Mountain, and The Aviator had pulled an upset, would we all be screaming so loudly? Would everyone proclaim to never watch the Oscars again? I doubt it. In fact, even I, who regard Million Dollar Baby as one of the best films of the decade, would have been fine with The Aviator winning. Sure, I would have been disappointed and felt they got it wrong. But, The Aviator was also a great film and one of my favorites from last year. And was Crash not also a great film and one of many peoples favorites from last year? All of this anger and all of this hooting and hollering is beginning to get out of hand. Let it go.

If Brokeback Mountain was your favorite film of the year, then enjoy it and claim it so to yourself and your friends and fellow film lovers. Because, after all, isn’t the Academy Awards just a reminder to all of us, of why we are so passionate about the movies. I am glad that the Oscars have sparked such heavy discussion over what the best film of the year actually is; for me it was The Constant Gardener. I am, however, not angered or embittered that it was not nominated for Best Picture; I am happy that it won the Oscar for Rachel Weisz.

So, lets put all this behind us. Let’s cherish, each of us, the films we held in high regard from last year, in our hearts and minds. But now, let's move on to 2006, because we have another year at the movies ahead of us. In fact in April alone we have a great number of films to look forward to from directors such as: Curtis Hanson, Ridley Scott, Larry Clark, and Terry Zwigoff. So, please, let’s move on and look forward to the great year ahead.

Good night, and good luck…

Next up for me: A preview of 2006 at the movies.

The 2006 Academy Awards

Crash Upsets!


Full list of winners (in order, which they were received):

Best Supporting Actor: George Clooney (Syriana)
Achievement in Visual Effects: King Kong
Best Animated Feature: Wallace & Gromit
Best Live Action Short: Six Shooter
Achievement in Costume Design: Memoirs of a Geisha
Achievement in Makeup: The Chronicles of Narnia
Best Supporting Actor: Rachel Weisz
Best Documentary Short: A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin
Best Documentary Feature: March of the Penguins
Achievement in Art Direction: Memoirs of a Geisha
Best Original Score: Brokeback Mountain!
Achievement in Sound Mixing: King Kong
Best Original Song: It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp!!
Achievement in Sound Editing: King Kong
Best Foreign Film: Tsotsi
Achievement in Film Editing: Crash
Best Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
Achievement in Cinematography: Memoirs of a Geisha
Best Actress: Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Brokeback Mountain
Best Original Screenplay: Crash
Best Director: Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)
Best Picture: Crash! "Wow"


So, there are the winners. I predicted 19 of 24 categories correct. Not bad, but could have been better. Certainly I didn't predict a Crash victory. The academy seemed to spread their awards out this year, obviously a sign that they liked a lot of films. Splitting Director and Picture was sort of a way to honor both.

Here are some quick tallies:
Crash: 3 awards
Brokeback Mountain: 3
Memoirs of a Geisha: 3
King Kong: 3
…And many, many others with 1…

I'll be back with a recap shortly. A lot has been written and dished about this year’s show.

Countdown to Oscar 2006

Oscar week is winding down and the Tinseltown press is hard at work. This is the week where even average moviegoers converse about the Oscars. As the excitement builds towards Sunday, we wonder what kind of year the Academy had at the movies. Were they head over heals in love with one film, or are they torn amongst many great movies; all of the Best Picture nominees this year are great pieces of fiction (even the overrated Brokeback Mountain) with important, hard-hitting truths. Is it Brokeback’s year, or do we have an upset at the big dance. Conceivably (although not likely), any of the other four nominees could swing an upset. Crash has been gaining a steady momentum since its October DVD release; while Munich caught some of us predictors by surprise when it slid in over Walk the Line—demonstrating its significant, late surge of support from the Academy.

The 2005 nominees for Best Motion Picture of the Year are:


Brokeback Mountain
Diana Ossana & James Schamus (producers)


Capote
Caroline Baron, William Vince and Michael Ohoven (producers)


Crash
Paul Haggis and Cathy Schulman (producers)


Good Night, and Good Luck.
Grant Heslov (producer)


Munich
Kathleen Kennedy, Steven Spielberg and Barry Mendel (producers)

I could now go on a rant in support of each of the above films winning…but I won’t. I will get right to the point. This is a two-picture race between Brokeback Mountain and Crash. Do the others have a chance? Hardly. Would it be great if any of the other films won? Absolutely. But will it happen? No. Here’s why…

So far this year Brokeback Mountain has claimed every award in sight (including the British Academy Award for Best Picture—and the Brits love to (as do the American’s) award their own films as the best movie of the year. Brokeback has also captured the PGA (Producers Guild of America) award, the DGA (Director’s Guild of America) award—for Ang Lee—as well as the BAFTA and the Critic’s Choice. The only award it has not won, that is sometimes helpful in predicting the Best Picture winner, is the ensemble-acting award from the Screen Actors Guild (SAG). The SAG ensemble award went to the fine actors from Crash—giving their film a glimmer of hope.

Let’s take a quick look back (as we have with every other category) at the last ten Best Picture winners compared with how they fared in the other award shows…

2004 – Million Dollar Baby – won: DGA
PGA went to The Aviator. SAG ensemble went to Sideways.

2003 – The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King – won: DGA, SAG, PGA

2002 – Chicago – won: DGA, SAG, PGA

2001 – A Beautiful Mind – won: DGA
Moulin Rouge won PGA. Gosford Park won SAG.

2000 – Gladiator – won: PGA
DGA went for Ang Lee (Crouching Tiger...). SAG went to Traffic.

1999 – American Beauty – won: DGA, SAG, PGA

1998 – Titanic – won: DGA, PGA
SAG went to The Full Monty.

1997 – The English Patient – won: DGA, PGA
SAG went to The Birdcage.

1996 – Braveheart – won: none
DGA went to Ron Howard (Apollo 13). SAG went to Apollo 13, as did PGA.

1995 – Forrest Gump – won: DGA, PGA
SAG gave no awards for ensemble.

1994 – Schindler’s List – won: DGA, PGA
No SAG award.

1993 – Unforgiven – won: DGA
The Crying Game won PGA.

Okay. I went back a little further than 10, but I wanted to make sure my next point was fully illustrated and represented by more than enough data. Never has a film won Best Picture at the Oscars, having only won the SAG ensemble and neither PGA nor DGA. And only once (Braveheart) has a film won none of the aforementioned awards and gone on to capture Best Picture. And, to cap it all off, only twice in the last 12 years has a film, who’s director won the DGA, not gone on to win Best Picture. So, if you don’t smell what I smell, then maybe you know something specific about his year’s race that I don’t; maybe the Academy is up for a shocker this year…but I certainly do not sense it. And so, sadly, my predictions are as follows:

The winner: Brokeback Mountain
The darkhorse: Crash
If they really want to shock us: Good Night, and Good Luck.
Should win: Capote


And, quickly, here are the rest of my predictions, as promised:

Best Director:
Will win: Ang Lee
Darkhorse: Paul Haggis
Should win: George Clooney

Best Actor:
Will win: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Darkhorse: Terrence Howard
Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman

Best Actress:
Will win: Reese Witherspoon
Darkhorse: Felicity Huffman
Should win: Reese Witherspoon

Best Supporting Actor:
Will win: George Clooney
Should win: George Clooney

I have to say I could be wrong here—there is a very, very good chance this award goes to Paul Giamatti, who has been snubbed the last couple of years for great performances in Sideways and American Splendor.

Best Supporting Actress:
Will win: Amy Adams
Should win: Amy Adams

I’m sticking to my guns here, although the favorite in this race is Rachel Weisz. I would not be too disappointed, though, if she were to win.

Best Original Screenplay:
Will win: Crash
Should win: Crash

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Will win: Brokeback Mountain
Should win: The Constant Gardener

Best Animated Feature:
Will win: Wallace & Gromit
Darkhorse: Howl’s Moving Castle
Should win: Wallace & Gromit (admittedly it’s the only film I have seen—but it was fantastic)

Best Documentary Feature:
Will win: The March of the Penguins
Should win: Murderball

Best Documentary Short:
Will win: A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin
Should win: How the hell should I know?

Best Foreign Language Film:
Will win: Paradise Now
Coming on strong: Tsotsi

This is the first time (in a while) that I have seen none of them prior to the Oscars—but I haven’t yet had the opportunity.

Achievement in Art Direction:
Will win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Should win: Memoirs of a Geisha

Achievement in Cinematography:
Will win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Should win: Good Night, and Good Luck.

Achievement in Costume Design:
Will win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Should win: Memoirs of a Geisha

Achievement in Film Editing:
Will win: Crash
Should win: The Constant Gardener

Achievement in Make-Up:
Will win: The Chronicles of Narnia
Should win: The Chronicles of Narnia

Achievement in Music (Original Score):
Will win: Brokeback Mountain
Should win: Brokeback Mountain

I’m going out on a limb here—anytime John Williams is the category, its tough to bet against him (and this year, he’s in their twice!) Memoirs is the favorite here, but I’m going with Brokeback to pull the upset.

Achievement in Music (Original Song):
Will win: It’s Hard Out Here For A Pimp (Hustle & Flow)
Should win: same (although In the Deep (Crash) is a pretty affecting song).

Best Short Film (Animated):
Will win: 9
If it doesn’t: The Moon and the Sun: An Imagined Conversation

Best Short Film (Live Action):
Will win: Ausreisser (The Runaway)
If it doesn’t: Six Shooter

As I make these predictions, I have yet to see the films (but I plan to). They are available to download from the iTunes Music Store. I’m just going on a few things I have read, which really indicated that any of them could win…so your guess is as good as mine.

Achievement in Sound Editing:
Will win: King Kong
Should win: King Kong

Achievement in Sound Mixing:
Will win: Walk the Line (Hey, if Ray could do it…)
Should win: Walk the Line

Achievement in Visual Effects:
Will win: King Kong
Should win: King Kong (or Narnia)

And that’s all folks!

If you missed my Top Ten Films of the year, the link is below. If I picked the nominees for Best Picture, they would (obviously) be my top 5 films of the year. So, no "If I Picked the Nominees..." section today. Check it out…

Top 10 Films of 2005

And on one final note: Everyone has something in particular they are pulling for at the Oscars. For me this year, its The Constant Gardener for Adapted Screenplay, and most of all, the dazzling Amy Adams for Best Supporting Actress in Junebug.

Amy Adams (Sundance 2005)

Alright...The excitement is building and we are finally just a few days away! Don’t forget to watch the show. I’ll be back with the winners and a recap on Monday. Until then, happy predicting to all, and to all,

Good night, and good luck…